08 April, 2013

War on the Korean Peninsula? My uneducated layman's view

First a disclaimer: I have no education in crisis and war analysis; nor am I expert in security and military strategies. These are my own thoughts and speculations. And I hope I will be proven wrong
I think we will see military actions on the Korean peninsula as the United States want to remove the threat that North Korean possess. The actual ability for Kim Jong-Un to push the button for a nuclear attack will make US to force a smaller or larger military incident in Korea.
I also believe that US may do this as a preemptive attack. There are too many hormone filled military advisors and leaders that just want to see North Korean gone. But there are also another angle to this and one that has been overseen in many of the discussions. A limited war on the peninsula will seriously weaken China and Korea. From a eco-political perspective, US has all to gain that North Korea heads to war with South Korea and has to be attacked from both South Korea, US and .. China. As China can’t really take the risk of a full-blown nuclear war an hours flight from Beijing, they would have to be involved and supportive of military counter-actions.
This would weaken China politically internationally but also affect their economic position. For Apple and other american brands, Samsung and other Korean products will suffer tremendously by a war outbreak.
If the war can be contained to the Korean peninsula with minor outbreaks to Russia, China and Japan, US will stand strong as the clear winner and really gain power in Asia. Therefore, I think that US may try to provoke an attack from North Korea or even may pre-emptive strike first.
But, I hope all military strategists remember the result of both Vietnam war and Iraq.

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